One of my favorite findings in social science is the mathematically impossible (much higher than 50%) number of people who think they're above average at various things. Social scientists love to coin clever names for phenomena and this one especially. This particular cognitive bias has been called, among other things, illusory superiority, the above-average effect, superiority bias, and, my favorite, the Lake Wobegon effect, after the fictional town in Garrison Keillor's A Prairie Home Companion radio show, where “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."
A classic study ("Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?") by Ola Svenson, published in 1981, demonstrated illusory superiority among drivers. Svenson found that 77% of Swedish drivers, and an incredible 88% of American drivers, believed themselves to be safer than the median driver. This study was successfully replicated by Lina Koppel and colleagues in 2023 ("We are all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers: Successful replication and extension of Svenson"). The new study found that over 90% of participants (all Americans) believed themselves to be safer than the median driver. Importantly, the participants in the 2023 study were 562 males and 641 females, so this was not just a guys-think-they-are-superior-drivers thing.





